星期日, 10月 23, 2005

Three and a half month baby


We used to get shaky, out-focus indoor photos when we turned the flash off the digital cam. Yet my wife always worries about hurting the baby's eyes. Until very recently, we haven't got a clue. Finally my wife asked her colleagues how to do it. So she is more comfortable to take more photos of our boy.

當我們關了數碼相機的閃燈之後,我們照出來的相都是鬆郁矇。但老婆總是擔心傷了寶寶的眼睛。我們一直找不到方法,最後老婆向同事請教才做到。所以現在她十分放心去給兒子拍照。

Of course, it would be nice if I have an online album with blogger. But I haven't tried this yet. Maybe later. At present I have one with Yahoo, see http://photos.yahoo.com/atong1

當然,能在blogger加上線上相薄就很棒。但我仍沒試過。或者遲些再算吧。現在我在YAHOO有一個相薄。見http://photos.yahoo.com/atong1

星期四, 7月 14, 2005

對沖

和一青年人講過對沖。

對沖,是因為每件行為或事件都附帶著潛在風險,都有可能向不利的方向發展,如果想降低可能的傷害,便要考慮對沖。

但要留意的是,對沖要付出代價,是有成本的,假如所謂風險的可能性並不是如你所估計的高,你可能付出不相應的代價去對沖,先已造成一個損失。這是說,對沖本身也是一個行為,也會有相關的風險。即係,唔對沖,有風險,對沖,也有風險,儘管是兩個不同的風險。比如,現在股市創四年新高,那要不要先行認沽去對沖下跌風險?問題係,個市牛氣沖天,你去走逆向可能「出師未捷身先死」。個市再夾上二、三百點你已無錢補倉,即所謂夾死也。就算個市最後真的回落,你早已戶口變個零。

國泰航空在油價升至US$60一桶就決定不再為油價作對沖,就是覺得油價再往上的風險已是有限,反而是有很大的機會往下跌。但假如油價繼續升,就要完全承擔損失。

對沖是要四兩撥千斤,以弱勝強,也要知道在何時撥,在那個位置上撥,否則就變成硬碰硬,甚至是螳臂擋車。

無痛分娩、無痛人生

人生總是多少會伴隨著痛苦。一出生時,分娩就有痛苦,雖然痛苦的是母親。

我們追求無痛分娩,也追求無痛人生。

自然分娩一定痛到叫救命。剖腹有做手術的相關風險,麻醉藥力過後一樣會很痛。在脊骨打麻醉的無痛分娩,在生產時應有很好的止痛作用,但我想過後總會覺得痛吧?

人生在不斷嘗試中會遇到很多困難、痛苦、傷心、難過。你可能翻來覆去仍不能突破,仍為某種錯誤所困擾,有種永劫回歸的感覺,那種滋味會很沮喪,很不好受。

於是會有種種方法,教你如何做得聰明,如何可以無痛。不是說這些都不管用,但是,可能重點還是要落手去做。亂來,可以搞得焦頭爛額,但假如一直只在研究如何做,就似一直紙上談兵,不願下水,是不會學懂泳術的。

最難受的,或者如馬鼎盛所講,要「任勞任怨」。任勞涉及意志,任怨最難,涉及修養,要看得開。明明可能自己無錯,都要食死貓,吞左佢。有功人地搶住領,有鑊人地爭住卸給你,隨時給人篤背脊,點頂?

所以,最後還是要自己摸索,才知是否行得通,期間你可能磨盡鬥志,也可能最終成功,但你不去試,是不會知結果如何的。

星期三, 7月 13, 2005

創世紀和醫道

剛剛今晚看完創世紀第105集大結局。故事裡面阿LIK (明明叫做阿力,張自力,點解佢D friend會叫佢阿LIK?) 的劇情最不合理,明明已經知道大哥的死與葉榮添無關,報仇計劃便應停止,甚至應該與添一同合作搞無煙城才合理,但係佢變到中飽私囊,不擇手段,只在追求自己利益,又好似唔多合理。前一集佢臨死都有講,「我唔知自己係邊個,我唔知為乜。」人有時又真係幾唔理智,會幾迷失自己,越係錯得大,越唔肯承認,甚至自我欺騙,去合理化自己。「公道自在人心」?人心不同,各如其面,有幾多個不同的人心,就有幾多個不同的公道。
今晚醫道劇情又好應題。眾人逃避倭寇來到村落,看到有孤零零的小孩,許浚又是「不可拋下病者不顧」。平時睇覺得好偉大,今日就覺得係迂腐。吾根叔就一心想快走,擔心倭寇一來就無命。最後倭寇出現,眾人躲起來時,小孩啼哭,眼見就要敗露行蹤,全靠尚華冒死把倭寇引開。眾人慌逃上船,許浚不願開船,說甚麼也要等尚華。但最後尚華還是來不及上船,遭了毒手。

救人不是不對,但假如明明無可能救得來,或者機會很微,甚或連累自己或他人,那還應不應去救?假如有五個人,但隻艇得四個位,係唔係要講義氣就一齊唔走,一齊等死?所以,很多時,講道德係唔容易,唔容易係因為,點至叫有道德?自己自以為正義,結果累死別人,咁算唔算道德?但如果向現實低頭,又要擔負惡名,又會良心不安。這就是道德困局也。

星期一, 7月 04, 2005

財經評論

美國加息,一時間外幣全線報跌,現貨金七月一日由436急跌至427,一下大散。七一至七四對香港投資者十分不利。七一香港假,無得反應,七四又係美國假,胡亂出招又怕佢過兩日來個反彈,真係跟又唔係,唔跟又唔係,只有等。

其實,加息係意料中事,點解會好似咁大反應。唯一可以講O既係,現在大家又再LOOK FORWARD,估下下一次加唔加,結果又係發現大圍認為仍然會繼續,於是又再散定貨先。

唯有勸大家忍忍,等人地散完貨再算。

星期六, 7月 02, 2005

七一集文

今日在Yahoo發表文字,茲將其整理一併刊出。

民之所欲

民之所欲,求治也。民主之要義,在民能自辨真偽,不易受唆使蠱惑也。

曩者沙士肆虐,政令兒戲,主事者跋扈,共見也。黎庶空巷而出,然也。

今者破舊立新,冀建一高效施政,此又豈遊行可達。政治問題,政治解決,面對二十三條,若不上街,只可就戮。今求行政之善,當於日常運作求解,不外理順調和,固本培元也。

新官上場,民皆有give him a chance之意。遙首望北,其撤退昏庸,已是僥倖,尚敢望與民主予港?民向求務實,不存非分之想也。

若逢大事,旋即匯聚,患難相恤,慨然仗義,此港人之可敬可愛也。觀乎南亞海嘯賑災,可知一二。非到關鍵緊要之事,民不易動也。

公民社會

一個民主社會,必顧及各方意見,那管是多數、小數。另外,是公民要有質素,我只可說現時香港之公民質素仍未及格。

但如不真行民主,又如何改善?此吊詭也(dilemma/paradox)。

有意見謂老美民主不足效,我反能認同。因有中東之亂、911之禍、伊拉克之戰可証也。但老美做不好,不表示民主不可取,我們要發展比他們更好的民主,才顯炎黃之氣度嘛。

我希望看看「羅馬帝國興亡史」,但怕力有未逮。

羅馬是帝國,未行民主,元老院最多是寡頭政治,(唔好信帝國驕雄,以為元老院係民主)。
希臘三哲,未見其支持民主,請看柏拉圖理想國,其藍圖近於第三帝國(Third Reich)多過現代民主。

我在研究民主應如何實行,例如代表性咁勁既Gore及Kerry點解選唔到?乞人憎既Bush又選得到?

英國的民主,由大憲章,Glorious Revolution逐步而來,於是王權漸退,國會之權日長。法國之民主,由法國大革命而來,受廬梭「人生而自由」而來,再可上溯Enlightenment、Renaissance,新教運動,掙脫Feudalism對人之束縛。Free之本義,就有掙脫束縛之意。

美國有抗英之戰,憲法草議者不願再有凌駕人民的王,也要當權者容許人民有議政自由,水門事件時Washington Post 即以此在法院與尼克遜力爭。

星期四, 6月 30, 2005

他約我去迪士尼、無賴

他約我去迪士尼 很好聽,有第一Take版及甜蜜版,但我唔覺兩個版本有分別。

鄭中基既無賴都很好聽,見到o的歌詞就諗起阿董。

「常犯錯愛說謊但總會內疚...但講了就算...夢與想丟低很遠」(剪片:立法會片段,阿董正在講八萬五、乜港物港、跟住八萬五不存在,最後一份施政報告也敷衍了事)

「但是仍唯獨你愛我這廢人/在地球唯獨你愛我這廢人,出錯你都肯去忍...」(剪片:唔駛講都係董太)

「然而誰亦早知不會合襯...活大半生還是很失敗」(剪片:七一遊行) 「偏偏你願意等。為何還喜歡我,我這種無賴,是話你蠢還是很偉大...」(剪片:大舊江、葉劉、霍英東、鄔醫生)

「在座每位都將我踩 口碑有多壞...」(剪片:一眾變臉富豪及擦鞋仔,如老賭何等等)

財經評論

本來打算把一棋局post出來,有中英文注釋,只要一click button就可以轉換語言。但發覺在Blog內加入Javascript不是簡單,又不想這麼快就轉用Geocities,只有慢慢來。

油價在創新高後,旋即出現獲利回吐,這本是常態。亢龍有悔,其能久乎?昨晚美股因油價回落而反彈,是日亞太股市大致向好,港股仍在14300,但係你叫我講有乜好消息,又真係無乜,最多只係no news is good news,一切原有的繼續,美國復甦繼續,加息繼續,中東搞唔掂繼續,曾特首繼續,我亂嗡繼續......

唔通真係升到15000賀新的特首?我認為大市在13500應見短期頂。可以在13350至13500之內試沽。以七月份期指計,在升市時可預多50點,即係心急既可在13400試沽。

外幣方面,美對歐、澳均呈強勢,金價回至436,但只要不離440太遠,不算大散。但要入澳元要等等,0.76美元是否守得住仍要看看,歐元更唔好諗。

附早前寫的評論:

17/5/2005 15:07

Hong Kong share market falls cats and dogs today. It seems it is ok for bottom fishing the blue chips. Although there is no good news, there is no bad news either. The speculation about RMB rise is empty in itself. So I don't know why it can be bad news if we realize that the rise will not happen. The key point is, if the speculation were not there from the very beginning, and only judging from fundamentals, how much is the share market worth?

A pretty good guess would be between 13300 - 13700 for the HSI, I think. Obviously the growth should not be as strong as last year, but if China economy and U.S. economy remain steady as they are now, it should not be too bad. So again, accumulate as it goes down, I suggest.

The same applies to foreign currencies, especially the Australian dollar. As it earns you a favorable interest rate, you can afford to gather it at the current level. For Euro, you need more patience. Basically they get down as U.S. currency rebounds. However, sooner or later, uncertainties would cloud up about the pace of economic recovery ( the same topic again!), and the high interest rate currencies would serves as a protective bay for the conservative moneys to park in for avoiding financial storms.

And good luck, fellow!

星期二, 6月 14, 2005

Noan Chomsky and Ground Zero

The title Day Zero of the first passage is influenced by Noan Chomsky. I think this is a great thinker, a real conscience, a sage who reveals the lamentations of our time. I've heard about the book 9-11, and that the author is an influential person. It was a week ago that I came across a book The Chomsky Reader, that I decided to delve into his writings.

I haven't really started yet, however, I've browsed a book in library which records some of his interviews. He mentioned that after 9-11, the premise of the World Trade Centre was coined the name "Ground Zero". Yet, the same name had been coined by the Japanese to refer to the disastrous attack of the two Japanese cities by atomic bombs in World War II. The Americans did not feel any discomfort or embarrassment in adopting the same symbol, which now serves as a remembrance of a U.S. trauma as well as a U.S. inflicted trauma. If the Americans had the slightest awareness or memory of the atomic bomb thing, they would not commit such a ridicule.

The whole thing reveals, to some extent, that how we treasure our own well-being, but have little regard for the well-being of others. This reveals how hypocrite we can be. Worse still, it is subconcious - and we still consider ourselves "decent people". Worse still, this applies to all, not just Americans, and include you and me as well.

So you see, ground zero is really something.

星期六, 6月 11, 2005

Day Zero

今日可以算係大日子,亦可以唔算係,在誤打誤撞之下,我開了這一個Blog喇